⬥ CLASSIFIED INTEL BRIEF ⬥ OP EPIC FURY / OP ROARING LION

IRGC COMMAND ELIMINATION
STATUS TRACKER

LIVE — UPDATED MAR 25, 2026 (DAY 26)  |  SINCE: FEB 28, 2026
CONFIRMED KILLED
KNOWN SURVIVORS
REPLACED
6,000+
TOTAL IRGC KIA
15,000+
TOTAL IRGC WIA
▸ OPERATIONAL TIMELINE — DAYS SINCE FEB 28, 2026
JUN 13
2025
7+ IRGC chiefs
12-Day War
FEB 28
2026
40+ officials
Day 1 Strike
MAR 1
2026
Khamenei's
wife dies
MAR 3
2026
Assembly of
Experts struck
MAR 7
2026
Mojtaba
named SL
MAR 17
2026
Larijani
+ Basij cmd
MAR 18
2026
Intel
Minister +
KACH cmds
MAR 19
2026
Energy
war / KACH
cmds
MAR 20
2026
NOWRUZ
IRGC
spokesman
MAR 21
2026
IRGC
spokesman
killed
MAR 22
2026
Nuclear
scientists
+ MOI cmd
MAR 23
2026
5-day
pause ·
talks signal
MAR 24
2026
Bushehr
nuclear +
Peshmerga
MAR 25
2026
TODAY
Day 26
15-pt deal
FILTER: FORCE: TIER:
▸ PRE-WAR: JUNE 2025 — 12-DAY WAR ELIMINATIONS (IRGC DECAPITATION WAVE 1)
▸ FEB 28, 2026 — OPERATION EPIC FURY / ROARING LION — OPENING STRIKES (WAVE 2)
▸ MAR 25, 2026 — DAY 26 — TODAY — US 15-POINT CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL DELIVERED · OIL BELOW $100 · DEAL HOPES
⬥ LIVE — MAR 25: IRAN RECEIVES US 15-POINT CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL via Pakistan mediators (AP). Oil plunges — Brent $99.5/barrel on deal hopes. Stocks rally globally. S. Tehran raid: 12 killed, 28 wounded. East Tehran: school + residential buildings destroyed. Japan releasing 30-day oil reserves (largest ever). 1,000 US 82nd Airborne deploying. Iran military taunts Trump: "negotiating with yourselves." ⬥
▸ MAR 24, 2026 — DAY 25 — MISSILE ENGINEER · BUSHEHR NUCLEAR PLANT · PESHMERGA · PMF COMMANDERS
⬥ Bushehr nuclear plant hit (no damage). First Iranian strike on Peshmerga forces (6 killed). PMF Anbar HQ struck. Trump: Iran offered "significant prize." CENTCOM: 9,000+ targets, 140+ vessels, 9,000+ flights. 12+ mines in Strait of Hormuz. Lebanon expels Iran ambassador. ⬥
▸ MAR 23, 2026 — DAY 24 — TRUMP 5-DAY PAUSE · NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS CONFIRMED · NEW SNSC SECRETARY
⬥ Trump 5-day pause on power plant strikes. Netanyahu confirms: "just a few days ago we eliminated two more nuclear scientists — more actions expected." Iran names Zolghadr new SNSC Secretary replacing Larijani. ⬥
▸ MAR 22, 2026 — DAY 23 — NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS + MOI COMMANDER + BASIJ 15 CONFIRMED
⬥ IDF struck Malek Ashtar nuclear R&D site. 5 simultaneous strikes on western Iran missile array. Iran struck Dimona & Arad in Israel — 180+ injured, Netanyahu: "a very difficult evening." Trump threatens to "OBLITERATE" power plants. Saudi Arabia expels Iranian military attaché. ⬥
▸ MAR 21, 2026 — DAY 22 — IRGC SPOKESMAN KILLED · ATTACKS DOWN 90% · TRUMP HINTS WIND-DOWN
⬥ CENTCOM: 8,000 targets struck, 130 vessels destroyed. Iran missile/drone attacks DOWN 90% from peak. Trump considers "winding down." US lifts Iranian oil sanctions. IEA: "largest oil supply disruption in history." ⬥
▸ MAR 20, 2026 — NOWRUZ 1405 — DAY 21 — IRGC SPOKESMAN + BASIJ INTEL CHIEF KILLED
⬥ IDF pounds Tehran on Persian New Year. Basij banning all Nowruz gatherings. Oil $115/barrel. Kuwait Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery hit again. 120+ Iranian vessels destroyed. Pentagon requesting $200B. ⬥
▸ MAR 19, 2026 — DAY 20 — KACH INTELLIGENCE + ENERGY WAR ESCALATION
⬥ Iran strikes Yanbu (Saudi Aramco), Kuwait refinery, Qatar Ras Laffan LNG. Oil hits $110/barrel. US deploys 5,000-lb bunker busters on Strait of Hormuz sites. 2 killed Ramat Gan. First Caspian Sea strikes. ⬥
▸ MAR 18, 2026 — INTELLIGENCE MINISTRY DECAPITATED + OPEN SEASON DECLARED
⬥ IDF STANDING ORDER — MAR 18: Netanyahu & Katz authorized IDF to eliminate ANY senior Iranian official without additional approval. No further case-by-case clearance required. ⬥
▸ MAR 1–17, 2026 — ONGOING TARGETED ELIMINATIONS (WAVE 3)
▸ QUDS FORCE — "THE QUDS FILE" — SYSTEMATIC ELIMINATION CAMPAIGN
⬥ QUDS FILE ACTIVE ⬥
Israeli intelligence opened the "Quds File" — a systematic effort to map & eliminate the entire Quds Force operational architecture across the Middle East. 7 top commanders confirmed eliminated. HQ destroyed. 17 aircraft destroyed.
▸ BASIJ PARAMILITARY FORCE — INTERNAL SECURITY ARM DECAPITATED
⬥ BASIJ COLLAPSING ⬥
Leadership eliminated Mar 17. Rank-and-file members refusing to report to checkpoints out of fear. Audio message released urging members "not to panic." Checkpoints across Tehran struck. Local intelligence helped pinpoint targets.
▸ IRANIAN NAVY — IRIN & IRGC NAVY — EFFECTIVELY DESTROYED AS A FIGHTING FORCE
⬥ CENTCOM: "We are sinking the entire Iranian Navy." 60+ vessels destroyed or disabled. 11 ships in Gulf of Oman on Feb 28 → ZERO within 48 hrs. IRIS Dena torpedoed off Sri Lanka. 3 Kilo-class subs trapped. Iran's naval doctrine reduced to asymmetric coastal harassment. ⬥
▸ POLICE / LAW ENFORCEMENT FORCE (LEF / IRIP) — REGIME'S INTERNAL SUPPRESSION ARM
⬥ ISRAEL STRATEGY: Strikes on police HQ & interior ministry were not about military threat to Israel — they were targeted to degrade the regime's ability to suppress Iranian protesters. The LEF and IRIP are the regime's primary tool to crush dissent. Their decapitation directly enables the Iranian people. ⬥
▸ KNOWN SURVIVORS & REPLACEMENT APPOINTMENTS
▸ AGGREGATE CASUALTY COUNTS — UPDATED MAR 24, 2026 (DAY 19)
SOURCES: HENGAW ORG (DAY 18) · HRANA HUMAN RIGHTS · AL JAZEERA TRACKER · IDF / CENTCOM · JPOST · NPR
⬥ NOTE: Iran is actively suppressing casualty data. Hengaw documents systematic underreporting, especially in Kurdish provinces. Iran Health Ministry figures are confirmed undercounts. All figures represent MINIMUM documented numbers.
▸ Iran — Military Casualties
4,789
IRANIAN MILITARY KILLED
HENGAW — DAY 18 (MAR 17)
6,000+
IRGC KIA (IDF ESTIMATE)
IDF — BY MAR 15
15,000+
IRGC WOUNDED (IDF ESTIMATE)
IDF — BY MAR 15
15
BASIJ SENIOR FIGURES KILLED (OFFICIAL)
IRAN STATE MEDIA CONFIRMED — MAR 22
▸ Iran — Civilian Casualties
511
CIVILIANS KILLED (HENGAW)
DAY 18 · 9.6% OF TOTAL
1,354
CIVILIANS KILLED (HRANA)
HRANA — MAR 17 · 622 UNCLASSIFIED
1,330+
CIVILIANS KILLED IN IRAN
IRAN STATE MEDIA — MAR 23 (200+ CHILDREN)
18,551
INJURED IN IRAN
IRAN HEALTH MINISTRY — MAR 18
48
CHILDREN KILLED — MINAB SCHOOL
FEB 28 · 10 ADULTS ALSO KILLED
178
CITIES STRUCK IN IRAN
HENGAW — 25 PROVINCES
▸ Regional / US / Israel Casualties
13
US SERVICE MEMBERS KILLED
CONFIRMED CENTCOM — MAR 18
~200
US TROOPS WOUNDED
CENTCOM — MAR 18
18
ISRAELIS KILLED
4,829+ WOUNDED — ALMA MAR 24
21
KILLED IN GULF STATES
BAHRAIN, UAE, KUWAIT — MAR 18
153
MISSILES INTERCEPTED — BAHRAIN
+ 301 DRONES SINCE FEB 28 — MAR 24
22
NATIONS IN HORMUZ PROTECTION COALITION
UAE + AUSTRALIA LATEST TO JOIN — MAR 23
92%
IRAN BALLISTIC MISSILES INTERCEPTED
IDF RATE — MAR 23
5-DAY
PAUSE ON IRAN POWER PLANT STRIKES
TRUMP DECLARES — MAR 23 · TALKS ACTIVE
1,029+
KILLED IN LEBANON
1M+ DISPLACED · 100+ CHILDREN — MAR 24
▸ Iran Civilian Toll Update (MAR 20)
204
CHILDREN KILLED IN IRAN
IRAN RED CRESCENT — MAR 20
18,000+
CIVILIANS INJURED IN IRAN
IRAN RED CRESCENT — MAR 20
20,000
SEAFARERS STRANDED (3,200 VESSELS)
WEST OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ — IMO MAR 19
$200B
PENTAGON WAR FUNDING REQUEST
HEGSETH: "TAKES MONEY TO KILL BAD GUYS"
▸ Operational Strike Counts
9,000+
US + IDF STRIKE TARGETS HIT IN IRAN
CENTCOM ADM. COOPER — MAR 24
7,600+
TOTAL IDF STRIKES (IRAN + LEBANON)
IDF — BY MAR 15
500+
IRAN BALLISTIC + NAVAL MISSILES FIRED
IRAN — BY MAR 5
~2,000
IRAN DRONES LAUNCHED
IRAN — BY MAR 5
140+
IRANIAN NAVAL VESSELS DESTROYED
CENTCOM ADM. COOPER — MAR 24 UPDATE
82,000+
CIVILIAN STRUCTURES DAMAGED/DESTROYED
IRAN RED CRESCENT — MAR 25
▸ MAR 19 — Energy War Escalation (NEW TODAY)
$99.5
BRENT CRUDE — PER BARREL
MAR 25 · FELL ON CEASEFIRE DEAL HOPES
+24%
EUROPEAN GAS PRICE PEAK SURGE
MAR 19 PEAK · EASING ON DEAL SIGNALS
HIT
QATAR RAS LAFFAN LNG — WORLD'S LARGEST
MAR 18–19 · PEARL GTL EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
HIT
SAUDI ARAMCO YANBU — RED SEA REFINERY
MAR 19 · SAMREF REFINERY STRUCK
HIT
KUWAIT REFINERY — IRANIAN DRONE
MAR 19 · EXTENT UNKNOWN
HIT
IRAN SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD — ISRAEL
MAR 18 · WORLD'S LARGEST GAS FIELD
-90%
IRAN MISSILE/DRONE ATTACK RATE DROP
MAR 21 · US DOD — FROM PEAK DAYS 1–3
140M
BARRELS IRANIAN OIL SANCTIONS LIFTED
US TREASURY — UNTIL APR 19, 2026
21
COMMERCIAL VESSELS ATTACKED
UKMTO — GULF / STRAIT / GULF OF OMAN
5,000lb
US BUNKER BUSTERS — HORMUZ MISSILE SITES
MAR 19 · DEEP PENETRATOR MUNITIONS
HIT
US EMBASSY BAGHDAD — DRONE STRIKE
MAR 18–19 · IRAN-BACKED MILITIA
⬥ POLYMARKET PREDICTION MARKETS — LIVE CROWD CONSENSUS ⬥
IRAN WAR OUTCOMES — CROWD ODDS
$130.2M+ TRADING VOLUME · 335 ACTIVE MARKETS · UPDATED MAR 25, 2026
↗ VIEW ON POLYMARKET
🔥 NEW DOMINANT MARKET — $45.1M VOLUME — US x IRAN CEASEFIRE
The crowd is no longer asking "will Iran fall" — they're now betting on WHEN the ceasefire arrives. As of today, 15-point US proposal has been delivered via Pakistan.
Ceasefire by March 31
YES 14% NO 86%
Ceasefire by April 30
YES 51% NO 49%
Near coin-flip — 15-pt proposal sent today
Ceasefire by Dec 31
YES 77% NO 23%
77%
Most active market — crowd overwhelmingly bets war ends in 2026
▸ REGIME COLLAPSE ODDS (separate from ceasefire)
Regime falls by March 31, 2026
YES 3% NO 97%
6 days remaining
Regime falls by April 30, 2026
YES 8.5% NO 91.5%
Was 15.5% — dropped sharply as ceasefire talks emerged
Regime falls by Dec 31, 2026
YES 31.5% NO 68.5%
31.5%
Was 42.5% — DOWN 11pts as ceasefire/deal probability rises
New Markets (Mar 25)
Reza Pahlavi Enters Iran by Dec 31
23%
$11M volume
Iran Leader End of 2026
45%
Mojtaba Khamenei stays · $4M vol
Iran Leadership Change by Dec 31
55%
$4M vol · $107K today
US-Iran Nuclear Deal by Jun 30
~38%
New market · rising fast
BIGGEST SHIFT
The crowd has pivoted from "will Iran fall?" to "when does the war end?" The ceasefire market at 77% by Dec 31 now dominates — $45.1M in volume in under a month.
REGIME FALL COOLING
Regime collapse by Dec 31 fell from 42.5% to 31.5% as ceasefire diplomacy gains traction — the crowd thinks the deal, not the fall, is the most likely outcome.
VOLUME EXPLODED
$130.2M+ total traded across 335 active Iran markets — up from $90.1M / 121 markets just one week ago. The war is now Polymarket's most active conflict ever.
MILANI AI TECHNOLOGIES · INTEL BRIEF · MAR 25, 2026